Because of the unexpected impact of the subprime mortgage crisis and the US economic slowdown on consumer demand, market research institutions have reduced the market growth rate of the global semiconductor industry in 2008. At the beginning of March, Gartner lowered its forecast for 2008 from 6.2% to 3.4%. Isuppli is also expected to cut its previous forecast in the near future, but the specific growth rate has not been given. In stat, a research organization, predicted that the growth rate of the global market would decline to about 2.4% in 2008. However, because the research institutions have adjusted their forecasts many times within a year, their growth rate does not fully explain the problem.

It must be recognized that the decline in consumer demand caused by the US economic slowdown is real, but its duration and actual impact cannot be judged at present. We believe that the current resistance to the growth of the global semiconductor market is mainly from the internal, that is, the decline in flash memory prices and overcapacity. It can also be seen from the forecasts of various institutions that although they lowered the growth rate in 2008, they are still optimistic about the forecast for 2009 and 2010, believing that the market growth rate will recover to about 10%, so it can be said that the foundation for the growth of the semiconductor industry has not been shaken.

According to SIA statistics, in January 2008, the global semiconductor industry achieved a total sales of 21.48 billion US dollars, up only 0.03% year on year, but this growth rate has risen to 1.5% in February. SIA explained that the rapid growth of the global semiconductor market was masked by the sharp drop in NAND prices. If the NAND market is not considered, other semiconductor markets have maintained an annual growth of more than 10%, and other global markets, including Europe, have also maintained high consumer demand.

For the trend of the global semiconductor market in 2008, we are more inclined to judge the low opening and high moving. The reasons are as follows：  

First of all, the order to shipment ratio (BB value) of semiconductor equipment in North America continued to rise, with the bottom already appearing in September 2007, and the order quantity rebounded significantly in the following December. As the leading indicator of the semiconductor market, this cannot but explain some problems.  

Secondly, according to the latest data, the excess inventory of the global semiconductor market is declining. After the excess stock is controlled, the supply and demand relationship of the market will return to stability.  

Finally, with regard to the declining trend of NAND price, we believe that this trend cannot be sustained for a long time. After all, manufacturers have to consider their own costs. After the price of NAND becomes stable, the impact of the rapid growth of other markets on the entire semiconductor market will be apparent.